Issues in International Politics(TYBA- PAPER VI):Unipolarity- Bipolarity-Multipolarity

INTRODUCTION

With collapse of Berlin wall in 1989 and Dissolution of U.S.S.R. in 1991 the world politics ushered in new era of international relations. These events celebrate the end of the Cold War which categorized the post World War II international stage. These new developments left the analysts and statesmen struggling with the problem of how to understand the world order.  One line of thinking views this situation in terms of polarity. Polarity in international relation is a description of the distribution of power within the international system. It describes the nature of the international system at any given period of time. Polarity has three types. Unipolarity, Bipolarity and Multipolarity. The type of system is completely dependent on the distribution of power and influence of states in a region or internationally.

UNIPOLARITY

Meaning

‘Unipolarity in international politics describes a distribution of power in which there is one state with most of the cultural, economic and military influence. This is also called a hegemony or hyper power’.

Examples

Egyptian Empire from 3150 BC to 664 BC, the Greeks ( 776 BC to 146 BC), the Persian Empire (550 BC to 330 BC), the Roman Empire (31 BC to 5^th Century), Mongolian Empire (13^th and 14^th Century), Ottoman Empire (15^th to 17^th Century), the French Empire (during the reigns of Louis XIV and Napoleon I) are regional and The British Empire (from the end of Napoleonic wars to the beginning of the 20^th Century), The U.S.A. (with the fall of the Soviet Union since 1991) are some of the global examples of Unipolarity.

BIPOLARITY

Meaning

‘Bipolarity in international politics describes a distribution of power in which two states have the majority of economic, military and cultural influence internationally or regionally.’

Examples

The U.S. and Soviet Union during Cold War, Great Britain and France during colonial era.

MULTIPOLARITY

Meaning

‘Multipolarity in international politics describes a distribution of power in which more than two nation-states have nearly equal amounts of military, cultural and economic influence.’

POLARITY IN POST COLD WAR ERA:

Ever since it became clear that U.S.S.R. was calling off the Cold War, as said above political analysts and statesmen, diplomats engaged in describing the international relations.  

American diplomats began their quest to define a new American role in the new emerging world order. Countries belonging to the Cold War blocks as an ally to U.S. or U.S.S.R. began contemplating their place while those non aligned countries which struggled to maintain their independent foreign policies during cold war recognized the need to rethink their strategies keeping their national interests in mind.

This was based on certain assumptions, first, the old bipolar world would beget a multipolar world with power dispersed to new centers in Japan, Germany (and/or “Europe”), China and a diminished Soviet Union/Russia; second, in the post-Soviet strategic environment the threat of war would be dramatically diminished. Scholarly opinion is divided on this issue, for some the world order is now Unipolar while some advocate that it is now essentially multipolar.

Case for Unipolarity

Advocates of Unipolarity maintain that the center of world power is the unchallenged super power, the United States, attended by its Western allies. Her economic, military and political superiority seemed an undisputed fact. And the emergence of a new strategic environment, marked by the rise of small aggressive states armed with weapons of mass destruction and possessing the means to deliver them, makes the coming decades a time of heightened, not diminished threat of war. While responding to the claim that the world after Cold War will be multipolar with Germany (and/or Europe) and Japan are rivals for U.S. on critic commented that,

“The notions that economic power inevitably translates into geopolitical influence is a materialist illusion. Economic power is a necessary condition for great power status. But it certainly is not sufficient, as has been made clear by the … behavior of Germany and Japan, which have generally hidden under the table since the first shots rang out in Kuwait.”

Case against Unipolarity

The “Unipolar Moment” as envisioned by some since the end of Cold War, in which U.S. was imagined as imperial ‘hyper power’ in a world was termed as hallucinatory moment in history by some. And the role of U.S. as first ‘hyper power’ was termed as French hyperbole. Instead U.S. as “indispensable power” or “leader of the democratic world” called for attention to describe America’s status in the world today.

There is a huge gap between America’s Military capacity and its actual ability to bend events according to its wish. A U.S $11 trillion economy facilitates enormous technological prowess and a defense budget that exceeds the combined total of the next 25 powers. Its ability, however, to unilaterally use that power-military and economic in a unipolar world, is hampered by reality. In words of Zbigniew Brzezinski, “Preponderance should not be confused with omnipotence,” In Vietnam war with the death toll of 58000, U.S. was unable to avoid defeat. Iraq after two wars is still an unresolved case. The U.S. military, spread thinly by its global commitments, is straining to provide the men and money necessary to secure an end to the conflict. Mean while, should a crisis break out elsewhere, the U.S. is no longer in position to engage forcefully.

The war on terrorism is a global war unlike two world war of 20^th century, far more complex than a massive deployment of men and munitions against a clearly perceived enemy state or coalition of states. In this war, terrorism is not even the actual enemy: It is a battle tactic used by an elusive, globally dispersed, well funded enemy. This enemy also boasts the latest resources in global communications, along with financial and personnel mobility. Building a world wide coalition of allies to fight such an enemy is not a policy choice. It is the only optional in a war without conventional battlefields.

Today, the U.S. possesses by far the largest pile of sophisticated weaponry on earth, yet its conventional military power is severely stretched in fighting one and a quarter war in Iraq and Afghanistan. Further, its nuclear edge is tempered by the other nations- including China-India, and Russia, which have large, conventional forces and demographic depth that have the means to respond with substantial nucleus retaliation. Even tiny North Korea, with may be a half-dozen bombs, has become hard to tackle.

The formidable superiority of U.S. economic power is also under threat. The rapidly ballooning expense of the Iraq war is widening already huge budget deficits. This is also intensifying a gathering US fiscal crisis of growing debt, now financed by foreign capital. Thanks to persistently large current account debits, the US in 2003 borrowed from abroad at an unprecedented rate of US $ 4 billion a day.

Case for Multipolarity:

Distribution of power in the world has fundamentally altered over the two decades since end of the Cold War. Claim of U.S. leadership and the post cold war conversion of “peace dividend” in the global liberal order have no more takers. Many saw the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq as the symbols of a global imperialism/imperial overstretch. Every expenditure has weakened America’s armed forces, and each assertion of power has weakened resistance in the form of terrorist networks, insurgent groups and “asymmetric” weapons like suicide bombers. America’s unipolar moment has inspired diplomatic and financial countermovements o block American bullying and construct an alternate world order. At best, America’s unipolar moment lasted through the 1990s, but that was also a decade adrift. European Union and China are the two emerging competitors successfully challenged the American hegemony in the geo politics of the 21^st century.

European Union

Europe is a global balancer between America and China. Absence of common army does not affect its capacity to do it. Europe use intelligence and the police to apprehend radical Islamists, social policy to try to integrate restive Muslim populations and economic strength to incorporate the former Soviet Union. European investment in Turkey is growing and binding it closer to the E.U. New pipeline route transporting oil and gas from Libya, Algeria or Azerbaijan to Europe is making E.U. efficient in energy sector.

Its market is the world’s largest, European technologies more and more set the global standard and European countries give the most development assistance. And a safer option for investment if conflict broke out between America and China. Euro is strengthening its hold on global economy. Persian Gulf oil exporters are diversifying their currency holding into euros. President Hugo Chavez of Venezuela went on to suggest Euros. While London taking over as the world’s financial capital for stock listing, it’s no surprise that China’s new state investment fund intends to locate its main Western offices there instead of New York. Mean while, America’s share of global exchange reserves has dropped to 65 percent.

And Europe’s political influence grows at America’s expense. While America fumbles at nation-building. Europe spends its money and political capital on locking peripheral countries into its orbit. Africa wants African Union like European Union. Activists in the Middle East want parliamentary democracy like Europe’s not American style presidential. Foreign students who were shunned after 9/11 joined London and Berlin: twice as many Chinese study in Europe as in the U.S. America controls legacy institutions few seem to want (I.M.F.) while Europe excels at building new and sophisticated ones modeled on itself.

China

China is cutting massive resource and investment deals from Canada to Cuba to Chavez’s Venezuela. In Africa, China is not only securing energy supplies; it is also making major strategic investments in the financial sector. China’s spectacular rise is evidenced by the ballooning share of trade in its gross domestic product. Every country in the world currently considered a rogue state by the U.S. now enjoys a diplomatic, economic or strategic lifeline from China, Iran being the most prominent example.

Aided by 35 million-strong ethnic Chinese Diaspora well placed around East Asia’s rising economies, a Greater Chinese Co-Prosperity Sphere has emerged. China has slashed tariffs and increased loans to its Southeast Asian neighbors. Trade within the India-Japan-Australia triangle-of which China sits at the center- has surpassed trade across the Pacific.

Small Asian nation-states are increasingly rallying toward China out of Asian cultural pride and an understanding of the historical-cultural reality of Chinese dominance. And in the former Soviet Central Asian countries-the so-called ‘Stans’-China is the new heavy weight player, its manifest destiny pushing its Hans pioneers westward while pulling defunct microstates like Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, as well as oil-rich Kazakhstan, into its orbit. The shanghai Cooperation Organization gathers these Central Asian strongmen together with China and Russia and may eventually become the “NATO of the East.”